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印度的新冠危机预示着发展中世界更广泛的风险

阅读量：47

发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　（中国上海，2021年7月5日）仅就印度和石化产品需求而言，如果其新冠危机不能迅速解决，ICIS高级咨询师约翰·理查森认为对2021年消费增长的基本预测可能不得不随之下调。
　　以聚丙烯（PP）为例。ICIS曾预计，在2020年比2019年下降7%之后，2021年的需求增长将比2020年回升13%，达到580万吨。然而印度疫情影响下的劳动力短缺导致当地生产耐用品的 "非必要 "塑料加工厂的运营率大幅下降。据ICIS的印度专家称，生产塑料包装的基本加工厂几乎正常运行，但这可能会因印度疫情加剧而改变。
　　据外媒报道，印度的新冠危机正在影响全球航运业。在印度港口开始拒收货物之前，该行业已经面临巨大压力。世界上相当大比例的航运人员来自印度。今年早些时候全球劳动力短缺就极大地影响了航运供应。不少国家的海事部门的通知显示，包括新加坡和阿拉伯联合酋长国的港口已经禁止船只更换最近从印度来的船员。如果印度的问题不能迅速解决，这可能会增加全球集装箱货运业务的不平衡。即使没有印度港口和印度船员的额外困难，全球集装箱货运业务预计也要到2021年第四季度才会恢复正常。
　　对于更广泛的全球经济来说，集装箱货运的中断与其他供应链的短缺相结合，推高了通货膨胀。由于全球新冠疫情，从集装箱到木制托盘、金属桶、锡罐和半导体都出现了短缺。如果印度的情况继续下去，新冠疫情在发展中世界的其他地区再次失控，全球经济的通胀水平将加速恶化。
　　ICIS认为，2021年第一季度中国经济适度放缓，部分是由于中国出口的半导体和集装箱运输中断造成的。如果集装箱货运问题因为发展中国家的问题而恶化，中国的经济放缓亦可能会继续下去。
　　集装箱运输中断也导致了欧洲聚乙烯和聚丙烯价格相对于其他地区的历史性高溢价。即便到欧洲的套利非常强劲，但货物运输非常困难。印度的事件是否会加重欧洲的问题，还有待观察。
　　在过去的20年里，发展中国家在推动全球对建筑砌块的需求方面所起的作用已大大增加。2000年，亚洲和太平洋地区（包括东南亚和印度次大陆）、非洲、中东以及南美洲和中美洲，占全球消费量的16%。去年，这一比例增加到26%。发达国家的增长也是积极的，因为政府的经济刺激措施达到了前所未有的水平，一些服务变成了商品的循环--例如，相对于餐馆而言，从超市获取食材的需求更大，卫生需求增加，对笔记本电脑和洗衣机的需求更多，以满足在家办公的需要。
　　ICIS高级咨询师约翰·理查森基于此对2021年全球石化产品需求做出了两种设想：
　　设想一是疫苗接种计划在发展中世界基本成功，因为针对较贫穷国家的全球协调经济救济计划开始生效。发达国家和前苏联的增长保持在与2020年相同的水平。亚洲和太平洋地区恢复到7%的正增长，非洲恢复到5%的正增长，中东地区也是5%的正增长，南美和中美洲是7%的正增长。2021年的全球消费量达到4.44亿吨，比2020年高出3.8%。
　　设想二是疫苗接种的民族主义以及资金和分配问题使大多数发展中国家陷入危机。西方也未能提供协调的经济救济。北美、欧洲、NEA和FSU的增长都比2020年低一个百分点。2020年依然呈现负增长趋势，今年在亚洲和太平洋地区、非洲、中东以及南美洲和中美洲会重复出现。2021年的全球消费量只达到4.3亿吨，比上行的消费量低1450万吨。2020年的需求增长仅为0.4%。

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[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_poster` [ RunTime:0.000834s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 52 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000345s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 55 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000229s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_property` [ RunTime:0.000670s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,`p`.`price`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`value`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`sku_unit`,`p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` FROM `yzn_goods_property` `p` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods` `g` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `p`.`recommend` = 1 GROUP BY `p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`g`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,15 [ RunTime:0.000905s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_category` [ RunTime:0.000595s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `hot_search` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000289s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `is_show` > 0 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC [ RunTime:0.000251s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `id` IN (1,2,7,16,17,34,92,95,38) [ RunTime:0.000215s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000180s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000177s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000160s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000154s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (34,92) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000168s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (95,38) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000176s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000148s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000154s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,1,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000164s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods` [ RunTime:0.000584s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (25,26,29,30,48,1) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000990s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000205s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000155s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000878s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000170s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000180s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000163s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000912s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000150s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000857s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000173s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000159s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000163s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000852s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000175s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000150s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000188s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000173s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000873s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000179s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000144s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000185s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000176s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000888s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000574s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 1897 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000294s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000527s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000161s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000147s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000134s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000136s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000129s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000240s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020494s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 1897 [ RunTime:0.000263s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000333s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002658s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004620s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002600s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004981s ]