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ICIS：下游需求多样化发展，聚烯烃产业升级实现差异化竞争

阅读量：54

发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　中国上海，（2021年4月26日）近日，来自ICIS的四位市场专家于深圳参加了2021年第三十四届中国国际塑料橡胶工业展览会，并举办了行业解码-探寻聚烯烃市场新格局的研讨会。会上几位专家与业内人士深入探讨了亚洲聚烯烃市场，重点关注了扩能持续引起的市场竞争加剧的问题，同时表示中国会引领亚洲聚乙烯需求复苏、疫情催生的“宅经济”在推动下游聚丙烯需求多样化发展。
　　聚烯烃扩能持续，市场竞争加剧
　　自2016年起，全球聚烯烃行业一直在集中扩能。其中，东北亚已经成为全球最大的聚乙烯生产地区，亦是最大的消费地区。2020年中国聚乙烯产能占全球35%左右，预计至2022年将增至37%，这主要归因于2021年中国引领全球高达14%的聚乙烯产能扩张速度。2020年中国约有400万吨聚乙烯新产能投产，聚乙烯总体国产量达2398万吨左右，较2019年增长13%。国产供应增多引发了标品-非标品间的价差缩窄，通用料市场竞争加速。随着北美在2022年达到新产能扩张峰值后，亚洲的产能激增将重构亚洲市场产品结构。

　　中国引领亚洲聚乙烯需求复苏
　　近三年内不可抗力事件频发，海外聚烯烃装置意外关停情况增多。其中今年2月份美国的严寒和风暴天气美国海湾地区多家炼厂和石化装置停车。而同期中国的“就地过年”政策则进一步加快了下游的复工速度，自给率提高，出口远洋的机会增多。ICIS行业分析师帅璐认为一方面, 2018年10月的中国运用税收杠杆将聚烯烃的出口退税率从原先的13%提高到16%是极大的政策利好；另一方面中国与东盟十国以及日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰15个国家在2020年11月正式签署的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）也进一步助力国产聚烯烃走出去，并推动中国在全球聚烯烃供应链的地位日益提升。

　　疫情经济催生聚烯烃多领域需求发展
　　新冠疫情催生“宅经济”，聚烯烃下游需求获益进一步增长。ICIS亚洲石化分析团队的俞婷提到今年中国政府工作报告GDP目标增长 6% 在以上，预示今年中国需求将快于全球市场保持强劲复苏。在医疗卫生方面，居民防护意识提升，口罩、消毒湿巾等相关纤维料制品成为日常生活必备，核酸检测、新冠疫苗接种将提振医疗级无规共聚聚丙烯需求。提到目前聚乙烯需求增长的第一驱动里力包装行业，居家隔离、办公的增多拉动了快消品包装及外卖包装需求，同时电商消费蓬勃增长，进一步提振快递业包装需求。而在小家电方面，海内外“找经济”陆续爆发，厨房小家电及个护小家电进入逆势增长，部分家电进入替换更新期，市场需求仍有增长空间。再看近期成为焦点进入“黄金十年”的新能与汽车行业，一线城市限行政策引发新能源汽车消费潮，而新能源汽车下乡则激活了三四线城市市场需求，互联网企业入局的更是让新能源汽车行业进入快车道飞速发展。
　　ICIS 亚洲丙烯及聚丙烯分析员周莹认为，城市化进程和消费升级将驱动亚洲聚丙烯需求持续增长。在短期全球市场中，各国可寻求机遇来实现自我平衡。局部市场供需错配会为企业带来机会并促进全球流通。中长期来看，供需增速将相匹配，亚洲供需矛盾趋缓。ICIS高级行业分析师王业勍则建议市场参与者利用ICIS的供需数据服务跟踪利润，提前预判聚烯烃产量增减，同时关注内外盘利润价差，把握住套利窗口和进出口机遇。在宏观层面建议关注现货走势，掌握期现基差变化以保持市场竞争力。

　　关于ICIS
　　ICIS是全球最大的石化市场信息供应商，能源和化肥业务增长迅速。我们在提供定价信息、新闻以及买家、卖家和分析师咨询服务方面拥有逾35年的经验。
　　ICIS在全球拥有600多名员工，遍布休斯敦、华盛顿、纽约、伦敦、蒙彼利埃、杜塞尔多夫、卡尔斯鲁厄、米兰、孟买、新加坡、北京、上海、东京和珀斯。其中，约350名员工为市场记者，参与市场价格和新闻的报导。ICIS致力于坚持核实、确证和认证的最高新闻原则。ICIS合规框架及其方法论和业务流程遵守国际证监会组织（IOSCO）的价格报道机构（PRA）原则。
　　ICIS隶属于LexisNexis Risk Solutions Group，是英国励讯集团（RELX Group）旗下的子公司。

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[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000246s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_poster` [ RunTime:0.000963s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 52 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000351s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 55 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000257s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_property` [ RunTime:0.001211s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,`p`.`price`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`value`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`sku_unit`,`p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` FROM `yzn_goods_property` `p` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods` `g` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `p`.`recommend` = 1 GROUP BY `p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`g`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,15 [ RunTime:0.002341s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_category` [ RunTime:0.000811s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `hot_search` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000417s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `is_show` > 0 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC [ RunTime:0.000327s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `id` IN (1,2,7,16,17,34,92,95,38) [ RunTime:0.000250s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000223s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000218s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000205s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000200s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000227s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (34,92) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (95,38) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000221s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000205s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000221s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,1,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000178s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods` [ RunTime:0.000608s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (25,26,29,30,48,1) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000952s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000190s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000168s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000187s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000849s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000175s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000160s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000147s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000909s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000195s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000162s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000148s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000842s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000195s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000190s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000154s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000851s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000209s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000147s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000183s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000158s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000843s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000179s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000143s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000179s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000158s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000900s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000703s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 1928 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001043s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000558s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000181s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000149s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000132s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000135s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000122s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000251s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020601s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 1928 [ RunTime:0.000249s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000333s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002771s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004583s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002590s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004897s ]