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为何近期新疆棉现货下调幅度突然加速？

阅读量：64

发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　据疆内部分棉花加工企业、棉花贸易商反馈，4月上旬以来棉花现货报价、成交价向下调整较3月有所加快，部分涉棉企业惜售、待价而沽的心态发生转变，有加快出货、抓紧资金回笼的打算。

　　目前疆内监管库“双28”机采棉公重报价整体下调至15100-15200元/吨(31级，因品质指标、杂质含量、仓储库不同有些差异)，较2月下旬最高点已回落超过1500元/吨，虽低于郑棉CF2105合约调整幅度(从17080元/吨跌至15000元/吨)，但仍大大高于轧花厂、贸易商的预期。4月8-9日河南、山东、江苏等内地库“双28”新疆机采棉报价15400-15600元/吨，疆内同等级同品质棉花价差回落至250-400元/吨。业内分析，因2/3/4月新疆铁路、公路发运爆发式增长(尤其公路运输，几乎与铁路平分秋色)，因此预计4/5月疆内外棉花价差将继续收窄。

　　为何近一周新疆棉现货下调幅度突然加速？调查、归纳如下几点：

　　一是随着郑棉CF2105合约再次下破，5月合约套保的棉花贸易商、期现公司纷纷加大“卖现货、平空单”套利操作，基差报价表面平稳，但对实单则优惠幅度明显扩大(尤其大额采购单，让利甚至达到150-250元/吨)，棉花现货承压不得不破位下调，而对于有关配额传闻，实际上并不可信；

　　二是截至4月上旬港口保税棉+清关棉库存不仅已接近警戒线(某国际棉商判断港口棉花库存已超过50万吨)，且询价、成交持续清淡，很不活跃，因此部分贸易商主动下调清关巴西棉、印度棉、美棉等基差(CF2105+基差)，外棉价格竞争力上升，对新疆棉现货横向施压；

　　三是3月下旬以来国内纺企、中间商基差采购、点价拿货的热情不高，只有中低品质棉花“一口价”成交稍好；5月部分新疆棉企、贸易商有还贷压力，不得不加快走货、回款。

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[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000231s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000207s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000188s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000912s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000220s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000203s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000227s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000892s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000173s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000154s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000149s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000845s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000180s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000160s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000149s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000843s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000179s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000155s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000179s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000157s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000831s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000157s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000188s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000158s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000849s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000771s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 1947 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000464s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000510s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000172s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000146s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000129s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000140s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000122s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000236s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020589s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 1947 [ RunTime:0.000306s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000401s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002639s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004549s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002504s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004802s ]