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原油和凝析油供小于求将持续到2021年

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发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　据油田技术6月10日报道，雷斯塔能源分析显示，被迫停产的石油和慷慨的欧佩克+自愿减产措施延长至7月，不仅将平衡全球原油和凝析油需求，而且规模足以从2020年6月开始造成每月石油供应小于需求，并至少持续到明年年底。

　　今年早些时候导致WTI油价下跌的供过于求状况已经成为过去，只要欧佩克+继续严格遵守协议，石油需求复苏轨迹不会发生根本改变。上个石油供应过剩月份似乎是5月份，当时原油和凝析油的日产量比需求高出约610万桶。

　　现在看来，6月份全球石油日产量将出现约150万桶的缺口。预计将7月扩大到460万桶/天，8月将达到420万桶/天，在2020年剩余时间缺口略微减少后，将在2021年1月达到520万桶/天的峰值。尽管供应小于需求的情况在那之后会有所缓解，Rystad估计这种情况将会持续到明年。

　　Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjrnar Tonhaugen表示：“通过迅速收紧即期市场，帮助压低价格，并创造一个有利于迅速缓解石油储备的供应环境，从而创造一个小的牛市周期，因为供应相较需求的减少将引发库存大量减少。”

　　Rystad Energy估计，在2020年剩下的几个月里，全球原油和凝析油日产量将维持在8000万桶以下。6月原油日产量可能达到7140万桶，并将逐月增长，到12月将达到7840万桶的峰值。

　　另一方面，2020年6月需求将达到7290万桶/天，从9月开始将超过8000万桶/天，12月达到8230万桶/天的月度最高水平。

　　然而，如果油价继续稳步上升，将刺激美国部分停产产能恢复生产。此外，如果钻探商提前结束停产期，美国原油产量恢复的速度可能会快于欧佩克+的预期，从而弥补部分供需逆差。

内容来源于酯香香化学采购网

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000215s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000206s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000909s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000241s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000207s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000967s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000223s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000212s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000223s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000915s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000224s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000211s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000217s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000941s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000222s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000217s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000254s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000228s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000932s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000232s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000203s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000250s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000226s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000940s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000801s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 1963 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000567s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000587s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000226s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000213s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000186s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000209s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000196s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000253s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020894s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 1963 [ RunTime:0.000319s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000407s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002666s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004596s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002556s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004861s ]