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ICIS：亚洲市场平稳度过疫情“风暴”, 中国领跑石化下游行业显著复苏

阅读量：4

发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　中国上海，（2021年3月9日）据ICIS发布的最新报告，专家认为，中国正引领石化和能源下游产业的区域复苏。其中，汽车零部件需求快速增长，原料供应紧张，提高生产计划迫在眉睫。建筑市场中重大基建项目迅速得到落实，原料价格大幅反弹。电商作为重点关注对象，保持了二位数以上的同比增长，使得包装需求井喷，行业走向极速发展。
汽车市场已经复苏，原料需求增长强劲
　　作为全球最大的汽车市场，中国在新冠病毒流行之际，展现了强大的经济复苏能力，并有望将其持续到2021年，推动亚洲市场对石化产品的需求。此外，由东盟、中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰组成的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP），也将促进区域贸易和供应链区域化。
　　随着汽车行业的复苏，仪表盘，汽车内部隔间的镶板，油漆，涂料，头盔和轮胎的需求将促进如丁二烯橡胶(SBR)、丁二烯丙烯腈苯乙烯(ABS)、聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)、马来酸酐(MA)和苯二甲酸酐(PA)的原料供应。
　　ICIS分析师张稷明指出，“由于丁二烯丙烯腈苯乙烯（ABS）在2020年销量偏大且库存较低，预计2021年，家电生产商生会提高生产计划”。与此同时，ICIS高级分析师Michele Bossi表示:“2021年，全球对于聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯（PMMA）的需求预计将复苏9.0%，受中国增长8.9%的影响，东北亚对PMMA的需求预计增长7.9%。”
重大基建项目迅速落实，原料价格大幅反弹
　　2021年，随着重大基础设施项目的迅速实施，中国作为全球最大的建筑市场将引领区域增长。据中国电子信息产业部(CCID)发布的信息，到2025年，中国预计在高级基础设施项目上投入人民币10万亿元。高铁、新能源汽车充电站、大数据和第五代无线网络等一系列新项目，总共支出将超过人民币17万亿元。
　　据此，ICIS预计聚氯乙烯(PVC)和聚乙烯(PE)需求将在2021年保持稳定。与此同时，自2020年9月初以来，由于中国不饱和聚酯树脂(UPR)和醇酸树脂行业需求的大幅反弹，亚洲的邻苯二甲酸酐(PA)和马来酸酐(MA)的进口价格上涨了65%-70%。此外，亚洲环氧树脂价格在2020年9月至11月间上涨了近50%，原因是工厂意外停工导致供应紧张，而建筑业的需求正在加速。
　　ICIS石化分析师Robert Searle表示，受中国建筑活动和房地产投资增长的影响，2021年东北亚对聚氯乙烯PVC的需求预计将增长6%。
电商销售实现两位数增长，力推包装需求井喷
　　据国家统计局数据显示，2020年1-11月，我国网络零售额达10.5374万亿元，同比增长11.5%。实体商品网络零售额同比增长15.7%，占我国社会消费品零售总额的25%。随着经济的进一步复苏，中国的网络销售可能持续增长，促进2021年的包装需求井喷。在封城和隔离期间，越来越多的消费者转向电商或其他在线销售平台，这一趋势在近期可能有所持续。
　　由于包装行业的需要，预计2021年聚丙烯(PP)、聚乙烯(PE)和聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)的需求将持续增长。
　　作为全球大宗商品的信息服务商，ICIS在年初发布了这份报告，致力于促成更明智的商业决策，帮助优化世界资源。ICIS在全球拥有超过600人的专业服务团队，每天提供针对性的互联服务，影响供应链上数以千计的决策。追根溯源，ICIS隶属于LexisNexis Risk Solutions Group），是英国励讯集团（RELX Group）旗下的子公司，在数据分析中具有举足轻重的地位。励讯集团是富时指数15的数据分析公司，拥有超过3万名专家，遍布全球40个国家。
　　ICIS中国市场开发总监徐蓉表示，通过更多政府刺激措施来促进国内需求，也符合去年11月时五中全会上提出的更加关注国内增长的纲要，这将致使石化市场从第二季度开始全面复苏。
关于ICIS
　　ICIS是全球最大的石化市场信息供应商，能源和化肥业务增长迅速。我们在提供定价信息、新闻以及买家、卖家和分析师咨询服务方面拥有逾35年的经验。
　　ICIS在全球拥有600多名员工，遍布休斯敦、华盛顿、纽约、伦敦、蒙彼利埃、杜塞尔多夫、卡尔斯鲁厄、米兰、孟买、新加坡、北京、上海、东京和珀斯。其中，约350名员工为市场记者，参与市场价格和新闻的报导。ICIS致力于坚持核实、确证和认证的最高新闻原则。ICIS合规框架及其方法论和业务流程遵守国际证监会组织（IOSCO）的价格报道机构（PRA）原则。
　　ICIS隶属于LexisNexis Risk Solutions Group，是英国励讯集团（RELX Group）旗下的子公司。

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[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000323s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_poster` [ RunTime:0.001119s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 52 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000330s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 99 AND `p_c_id` = 55 AND `status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000226s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_property` [ RunTime:0.001061s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,`p`.`price`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`value`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`sku_unit`,`p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` FROM `yzn_goods_property` `p` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods` `g` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `p`.`recommend` = 1 GROUP BY `p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`g`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,15 [ RunTime:0.002421s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_category` [ RunTime:0.000805s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `hot_search` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000385s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `is_show` > 0 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC [ RunTime:0.000258s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `id` IN (1,2,7,16,17,34,92,95,38) [ RunTime:0.000223s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000171s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000156s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000163s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000163s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000153s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (34,92) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000170s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` IN (95,38) AND `status` = 1 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC,`id` DESC [ RunTime:0.000168s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 1 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000150s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000147s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,1,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000155s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods` [ RunTime:0.000570s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (25,26,29,30,48,1) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000931s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000189s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000156s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000161s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000854s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000172s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000152s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000149s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000865s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000171s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000160s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000146s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000841s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000180s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000150s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000149s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000848s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000200s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000218s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000247s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000905s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000212s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000191s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000237s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000212s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000929s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000807s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 2309 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000587s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000577s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000199s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000172s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000177s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000168s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000220s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020469s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 2309 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000364s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002675s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004605s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002503s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004881s ]