酯香香

受疫情扰动春节前钢市或提前进入淡季

阅读量：3

发布时间：2021-08-19

来源：酯香香化学采购网

　　当前，在无其他利好、利空因素影响的情况下，河北、黑龙江等地的疫情发展态势成了钢市的主要影响因素。在笔者看来，在此次疫情扰动下，春节前钢市很可能提前进入淡季。

　　一方面，此次疫情对钢铁行业的影响更多集中在流通和终端环节，对生产环节的影响相对较小。出于疫情防控的考虑，河北等地先后发布“工程停工令”，导致需求进一步下降，尤其是以螺纹钢为代表的建筑钢材下降幅度较为明显。据业内机构统计，在今年1月份首周(1月4日～1月8日)，建筑钢材周内日均成交量为17.8万吨。而截至1月21日，建筑钢材周内日均成交量已经降至11.1万吨。由此可见，在疫情的扰动下，市场需求愈发疲软，淡季效应更加浓烈。

　　另一方面，今年“冬储”价格偏高。从目前多地钢企出台的“冬储”政策来看，螺纹钢价格普遍限定在4050元/吨左右，低于当前市场价格200元/吨～300元/吨。与往年3500元/吨～3800元/吨的“冬储”价格相比，当前的价格对贸易商的吸引力并不大。特别是在区域疫情走势仍具有一定不确定性的情况下，今年贸易商“冬储”积极性明显偏低。笔者据此预计，今年“冬储”规模将小于往年，春节前需求难以大幅反弹，钢市或将直接进入有价无市的淡季。

　　此外，钢市提前进入淡季的另一个信号即是期货对现货价格的拉动作用不断弱化。在此次疫情暴发之初，期货市场资金从螺纹钢等成材期货跳出，转入铁矿石、焦炭等原料市场，并强势拉涨，在其带动下市场一度出现反弹行情。然而，当前期货市场也出现疲态，逐渐进入震荡调整周期，对现货市场很难形成强力支撑。

　　后期，随着钢企锁价政策逐渐增多，现货市场的有效操作空间将被进一步压缩，钢价更多将进入震荡调整行情中。不过，需要注意到的是，当前62%品位铁矿石价格已经连续10日保持在170美元/吨以上，焦炭价格也已完成了第14轮提涨，钢价的高成本支撑效应仍在。钢企为了转嫁成本压力，大概率将上调钢材出厂价格。笔者认为，即使进入淡季，钢价深度调整的空间也不大。　　

内容来源于酯香香化学采购网

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[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods_property` [ RunTime:0.001328s ]
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[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,1,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000227s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_goods` [ RunTime:0.000608s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (25,26,29,30,48,1) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000973s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000216s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 2 [ RunTime:0.000216s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,2,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000193s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (42,43,2) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000901s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 7 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000205s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 7 [ RunTime:0.000198s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,7,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000193s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (10,14,32,33,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,96,97,7) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000936s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000222s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 16 [ RunTime:0.000196s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,16,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000192s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (59,60,61,62,63,16) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000907s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000219s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` = 17 [ RunTime:0.000195s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,17,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000201s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (40,64,65,66,67,68,100,17) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000906s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 34 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000226s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 92 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000183s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (34,92) [ RunTime:0.000239s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,34,%' or arrparentid like '0,92,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000225s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (35,70,71,93,94,34,92) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000906s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 95 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000207s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`catname` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `pid` = 38 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000203s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND `id` IN (95,38) [ RunTime:0.000250s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_goods_category` WHERE `status` = 1 AND ( arrparentid like '0,38,%' or arrparentid like '0,95,%' ) [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `g`.`name`,p.id as p_id,`p`.`price`,`p`.`type`,`p`.`thumb`,`p`.`unit`,`p`.`is_where`,`p`.`goods_id`,`p`.`repeat_type` FROM `yzn_goods` `g` LEFT JOIN `yzn_goods_property` `p` ON `p`.`goods_id`=`g`.`id` WHERE `p`.`status` = 1 AND `p`.`is_del` = 0 AND `g`.`is_del` = 0 AND `p`.`is_where` LIKE '%1%' AND `g`.`cate_id` IN (47,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,99,95,38) AND `p`.`hot_sale` = '1' GROUP BY `p`.`repeat_type`,`p`.`goods_id` ORDER BY `p`.`sort` DESC,`p`.`id` DESC LIMIT 0,10 [ RunTime:0.000909s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_article` [ RunTime:0.000812s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.*,`AD`.*,`C`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_article_data` `AD` ON `A`.`id`=`AD`.`did` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`id` = 2471 AND `A`.`status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000595s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `yzn_category` [ RunTime:0.000580s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 35 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000194s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (36,37,38,39,40,41,42) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000187s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 43 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000175s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` IN (44,45,46,47,48,49,50) AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000190s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id` FROM `yzn_category` WHERE `parentid` = 6 AND `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000167s ]
[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000212s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=yzncms;charset=utf8
[ SQL ] SELECT `A`.`id`,`A`.`title` FROM `yzn_article` `A` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `C` ON `C`.`id`=`A`.`catid` WHERE `A`.`status` = 1 AND `A`.`catid` IN (35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42) ORDER BY `A`.`flag` DESC,`A`.`listorder` ASC,`A`.`updatetime` DESC [ RunTime:0.020554s ]
[ SQL ] UPDATE `yzn_article` SET `hits` = `hits` + 1 WHERE `id` = 2471 [ RunTime:0.000260s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `yzn_poster` WHERE `cate_id` = 10 AND `p_c_id` = 41 ORDER BY `listorder` ASC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000349s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002623s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 38 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004604s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.002535s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `a`.*,`c`.`catname` FROM `yzn_article` `a` INNER JOIN `yzn_category` `c` ON `a`.`catid`=`c`.`id` WHERE `catid` = 37 AND `a`.`status` = 1 ORDER BY `flag` DESC,`listorder` ASC,`updatetime` DESC LIMIT 0,6 [ RunTime:0.004894s ]